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AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC (ADP)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY25: Revenue $5.13B (+8% y/y), adjusted EBIT margin 23.7% (+40 bps y/y), GAAP diluted EPS $2.23, adjusted diluted EPS $2.26 . Versus S&P Global consensus, ADP delivered a revenue and EPS beat in Q4*.
  • FY25: Revenue $20.56B (+7%), adjusted EBIT $5.35B (+9%), adjusted EBIT margin 26.0% (+50 bps), adjusted diluted EPS $10.01; GAAP diluted EPS $9.98 .
  • FY26 outlook: Revenue growth 5–6%, adjusted EBIT margin expansion 50–70 bps, adjusted/GAAP diluted EPS growth 8–10%, adjusted effective tax rate ~23% .
  • Key catalysts: Client funds interest tailwind (CFI revenue guided to $1.29–$1.31B; net impact from extended strategy $1.25–$1.27B) and AI/product cycle momentum (Lyric HCM, Workforce Software) balanced by expected adjusted margin contraction in Q1 FY26 before ramping through the year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong Q4 close and full-year performance: “We concluded fiscal year 2025 with strong revenue and earnings growth… bolstered by record-high client satisfaction levels” — Maria Black, CEO .
  • Employer Services retention hit 92.1% for the year (near record) on record client satisfaction; U.S. pays per control +1% in Q4/FY25 .
  • Product momentum: Lyric HCM client wins up >50% y/y, pipeline up; Workforce Software integration driving co-selling and traction, esp. in multinational enterprise .

What Went Wrong

  • ES new business bookings grew only 3% in FY25; softer finish in HRO/international with elongated decision cycles delaying Q4 closures .
  • PEO margins down (–20 bps in Q4; –60 bps FY) on faster zero-margin benefits pass-through growth and higher SUI costs, despite 7% revenue and 3% WSE growth .
  • Transparency shift: Management will no longer provide point margin forecasts for ES/PEO segments; directional commentary and actuals will continue, which may reduce guidance granularity .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$5,048.4 $5,553.0 $5,126.8
Net Earnings ($USD Millions)$963.2 $1,249.5 $910.6
Diluted EPS ($)$2.35 $3.06 $2.23
Adjusted Net Earnings ($USD Millions)$963.2 $1,249.6 $923.1
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$2.35 $3.06 $2.26
Adjusted EBIT ($USD Millions)$1,272.0 $1,629.7 $1,212.9
Adjusted EBIT Margin (%)25.2% 29.3% 23.7%

Segment breakdown:

SegmentQ2 2025 Revenue ($MM)Q3 2025 Revenue ($MM)Q4 2025 Revenue ($MM)
Employer Services$3,388.5 $3,767.9 $3,465.6
PEO Services$1,663.3 $1,788.5 $1,664.2
ES Segment Margin (%)34.9% 39.8% 33.5%
PEO Segment Margin (%)15.1% 14.2% 13.2%

KPIs and portfolio economics:

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
U.S. Pays per Control (change)+1% +1% +1%
Avg Paid PEO WSEs746,000 748,000 761,000
End-of-Period PEO WSEs751,000 751,000 764,000
Interest on Funds Held for Clients ($MM)$272.8 $355.2 $307.8
Avg Yield on Client Funds Portfolio (%)3.1% 3.2% 3.2%
Avg Client Funds Balance ($B)$35.3 $44.5 $38.1

Non-GAAP adjustments in Q4: $19.3M optimization initiatives added ~$0.03 to adjusted EPS; tax effects included (see reconciliation) .

Guidance Changes

FY2025 guidance changes (Q2 → Q3):

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Jan 29, 2025)Current Guidance (Apr 30, 2025)Change
Adjusted EBIT Margin expansionFY202530–50 bps 40–50 bps Raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS growthFY20257–9% 8–9% Raised
ES Client Revenue RetentionFY2025(30) to (10) bps (20) bps to flat Raised
PEO MarginFY2025(90) to (70) bps (80) to (60) bps Raised
CFI Revenue ($MM)FY2025$1,140–$1,160 $1,160–$1,170 Raised
Net Impact from Extended Strategy ($MM)FY2025$1,025–$1,045 $1,045–$1,055 Raised

FY2026 initial outlook (Q4):

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Revenue GrowthFY2026N/A5–6% New
Adjusted EBIT Margin expansionFY2026N/A50–70 bps New
Adjusted Effective Tax RateFY2026N/A~23% New
Diluted & Adjusted Diluted EPS growthFY2026N/A8–10% New
ES Revenue GrowthFY2026N/A5–6% New
ES New Business BookingsFY2026N/A+4–7% New
ES Client Revenue RetentionFY2026N/A(10)–(30) bps New
U.S. Pays per ControlFY2026N/A0–1% New
PEO Revenue GrowthFY2026N/A5–7% New
PEO Revenue ex Pass-throughsFY2026N/A3–5% New
Avg PEO WSE GrowthFY2026N/A2–3% New
Client Funds Interest Revenue ($MM)FY2026N/A$1,290–$1,310 New
Net Impact from Extended Strategy ($MM)FY2026N/A$1,250–$1,270 New
Yield on Client Funds PortfolioFY2026N/A~3.4% New

Note: Management will no longer provide point margin forecasts for ES/PEO segments; actuals and directional commentary will be provided .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 FY25)Current Period (Q4 FY25)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesADP Assist driving service/sales efficiency; minutes shaved per call; broad deployment plans “Meaningful productivity improvements” already realized; net investment in AI still in the tens of millions; continued rollout across org and products Expanding deployment
Lyric HCM momentumRebrand resonating; bookings contribution expected; pipeline up significantly y/y Clients sold up >50% y/y; live clients doubled; pipeline growing; strong enterprise/MNC receptivity Accelerating
Workforce SoftwareAcquisition closed Oct; integration progressing; co-selling wins expected Co-selling already contributing; bullish on up-market/MNC contribution; ongoing integration with Lyric/GlobalView Scaling
Embedded payroll (Fiserv/Clover)Referral program launched; embedded integrations forthcoming; potential TAM expansion RUN embedded into Clover now for subset; broader deployment planned; Cash Flow Central to be embedded in RUN; contributions expected Building
Macro, tariffs, FXQ3: FX headwind; short rates down; international bookings lumpy with uncertainty International softness delayed decisions; FX a modest ES tailwind in FY26 Mixed; cautious
PricingTargeting ~100 bps pricing (vs 50 bps pre-pandemic) Pricing assumptions ~100 bps in FY26, slight moderation vs FY25 Elevated but easing
RetentionModest declines vs record highs; strong small biz stability FY retention 92.1%; guidance prudently assumes 10–30 bps decline in FY26 Still strong; cautious outlook
Client funds interestLaddering drives CFI tailwind; Q3 balances strong Avg yield guided to 3.4% in FY26; CFI revenue $1.29–$1.31B Tailwind continues
PEO margins & benefits inflationPEO margin pressure from pass-throughs/SUI timing PEO margins down; benefits pass-through growth expected to outpace PEO revenue Ongoing pressure

Management Commentary

  • “We concluded fiscal year 2025 with strong revenue and earnings growth… record-high client satisfaction levels across the company.” — Maria Black, CEO .
  • “Our fiscal 2026 outlook assumes a continued slight moderation in the macroeconomic environment… adjusted EBIT margin expansion of 50 to 70 basis points.” — Peter Hadley, CFO .
  • “We expect… client funds interest revenue will increase from $1.19 billion in fiscal 2025 to a range of $1.29 to $1.31 billion in fiscal 2026… net impact… to $1.25 to $1.27 billion.” — Peter Hadley, CFO .
  • “We are already well and truly off to the races… Workforce Software being part of the integrated suite from a selling perspective.” — Peter Hadley, CFO .
  • “Our pipelines remain healthy… laser-focused on accelerating ES new business bookings growth in fiscal 2026.” — Maria Black, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Bookings softness detail: HRO/international delays, not competitive losses; large, complex deals with elongated cycles; pipeline up y/y and still active .
  • Pricing outlook: FY26 pricing contribution ~100 bps, slightly moderating from FY25; retention broad-based strength, small-business out-of-business rates better than feared .
  • Workforce Software & NextGen WFN: Active co-selling; NextGen WFN expanding beyond core mid-market; improved implementation experience and fewer service contacts .
  • PEO dynamics: Pass-through benefits inflation driving reported revenue; non-pass-through revenues dampened by moderating wage growth; expectation of lower SUI than FY25 .
  • Margin cadence: Expect adjusted EBIT margin contraction y/y in Q1 FY26 due to acquisition timing and investments, ramping thereafter .

Estimates Context

MetricQ2 2025 Consensus*Q2 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*Q3 2025 ActualQ4 2025 Consensus*Q4 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)4,957.5*5,048.4 5,492.7*5,553.0 5,045.0*5,126.8
Primary EPS ($)2.295*2.35 2.973*3.06 2.227*2.26 (Adjusted Diluted)

Values with asterisks () retrieved from S&P Global. ADP beat consensus revenue and EPS in Q2–Q4 FY25.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 delivered broad-based beats vs S&P Global consensus on both revenue and EPS; sequential softness from Q3 reflects normal seasonality and mix rather than demand deterioration* .
  • FY26 setup balances tailwinds (CFI yield and balances, FX modest tailwind for ES) with prudent macro assumptions (0–1% U.S. pays per control, retention down 10–30 bps) .
  • Margin cadence matters for trading: management flagged adjusted EBIT margin contraction in Q1 FY26 before ramp; near-term margin prints could headline risk despite full-year expansion guidance .
  • Product cycle is a structural positive: Lyric HCM and NextGen WFN momentum, plus Workforce Software integration/co-selling should support bookings re-acceleration (ES bookings guide +4–7%) .
  • PEO margins will likely stay pressured by benefits pass-through inflation and mix; investors should focus on revenue ex pass-throughs (guided +3–5%) and WSE growth (2–3%) for underlying performance .
  • Pricing contribution remains elevated (~100 bps) vs pre-pandemic norms, offering a lever to offset macro moderation while retention remains high .
  • Guidance communication shifts (no point segment margins) reduce granularity; monitor quarterly segment actuals and directional commentary for margin trajectory .

Footnote: Consensus/estimate values marked with asterisks (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.